August surprise?

Surprised at What Happened in August.

So what happened that month that was such a surprise?

If you’ve been watching the news or reading news stories you’ve seen that the reporting on the real estate market has all been about how it drastically dropped in July because of the end of the tax incentive and that it means the recovery is over, etc., etc.

I predicted in my newsletter since Mar/Apr of this year that we would see a big rise in sales in March and April (which we did) then a drop in May and June but still in a higher range (which is what happened) followed by a drop in July after the deadline for the tax credit (no crystal ball needed there).  But I also said that we’d have to see what happened in the months after July to really determine what condition the market is in.  The dramatically increased sales from the tax incentive didn’t allow us to see the true condition as the sales were artificially inflated because of the incentive.  But at the same time, the drop we saw in July was also directly related to this same situation and so shouldn’t be looked at all by itself as a true indication of the market since it was to be expected.

I can’t speak for the “real estate market” that is reported in the news as they are talking about the overall statistics for the country and I can only talk to you about the local market where I work (remember that you need to look at the local market conditions as it will vary from area to area).  I can talk to you about what is happening locally since I know what is happening here because I work here and have access to the statistics for this area.  And from what I’m seeing we are still in a recovery in this local market.

Even though the sales in July took a big drop it was still above the same month in 2007 and 2008.  But like I said above that was to be expected and the real measure of the market condition will be how the sales do in the months following July.  So that’s where we see the August surprise.

Sales in August increased quite a bit from July and nearly reached the level they were at last August (which was only 2 months before the first deadline for the tax incentive).  Based on the news stories you’d expect that August sales would have either declined again or stayed down where they were in July, not increased and definitely not increased as much as they did.  We’ll have to see how September turns out but if sales stay in or near the same range that will be a very positive sign.

Take a look at the graph to see what I’m talking about (2010-purple, 2009-green, 2008-red, 2007-blue):

Sales chart 2007-2010 thru Aug 2010

I don’t know about you but I’m looking forward to see where things end up for September.  I’ll let you know in next month’s newsletter.

By the way, welcome to my site.  You’ll find many of the same features you liked on my Dunedin site but you’ll find even more that I didn’t have the ability to incorporate through on the Dunedin site.  I will be keeping my Dunedin site active in addition to this one so you are welcome to visit either site and search the MLS or access all the tools and information I make available to you.

One of the things that you’ll notice on this site is that there is information in the right side of each page which shows the most recent good deals that I’ve found.  In addition I’ve set it up so that you can have any updates, including the new hot deals I find, emailed to you by clicking on the “Subscribe to Blog Feeds” link that you’ll see on the right side of each page.  (Just choose which way you want to have the updates sent to you and then click on the button to finish the subscribing process.)

Spend some time looking around the site and fill in the comments box with any suggestions you have or even any opinions you have on what I’ve written.  Don’t forget that any comment you submit (that is more than just something like “sounds good” or “I’ve heard that”) gets you entered into the drawing for 3 gift cards I’ll be giving out next month.  If you didn’t read about this contest in last month’s newsletter and want more info on it, just send me an email.

There will be more information added each month and what you ask for will determine what I add so don’t be shy about letting me know what you want.

I hope you’ve had a good summer and that September is a good month for you.  Will this be the year that you decide to buy the Florida home or condo you’ve been thinking about?  If it is I look forward to helping make the experience go as smoothly for you as possible.

Sincerely,

Ron (727-687-1160)

Copyright 2010    Ron Nedd